Last week was a market of momentum, with traders pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a precursor to rejoicing. But BlackRock isn’t so optimistic to show that the market is ready for any significant change in direction. This week is shaping up pretty eventful with the end of Q1 and some key economic data in focus.
Monday: Swiss Inflation, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Event
Switzerland’s inflation data will come, which is likely to point to a minor increase in prices. The increases were less dramatic compared to most of the other economies, and however successive above-forecast inflation readings of late have bolstered the Swiss franc.
Focus on Trading
The USD/CHF has a fair trading outlook. A bearish trend is present, but the recent moves have resulted in an oversold market that may see a rebound. It could be setting up to make a move to retest the 100-day moving average or higher to the equal highs above.
Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia and US JOLTS Job Openings
Key Event
Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement. The peak rate is seen at 3.85% in this cycle, therefore a possible pause at 3.6% today may be priced in.
Additional Information
US JOLTS job openings, in case the trend of upside surprises continues, may also influence the USD pairs.
Strategy
Continue to monitor the EUR/USD closely as it struggles with resistance near the 200-day moving average. A breakdown below 1.06500 might target demand zones at 1.06500 and 1.06350.
Wednesday: Reserve Bank of New Zealand and ADP Non-Farm Employment
Key Event
RBNZ. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to announce a policy decision and with rates at 4.75% this may be the moment it decides to pause.
Additional Data
ADP nonfarm employment change releases an initial look at employment trends.
Trading Insight
NZD/JPY may find some resistance on the 200-day MA, which might keep prices in a range. An upside break may open the target at 86.5 levels.
Thursday: Calm Before the Storm with Canada Employment
Critical Point Highlights
Canada’s employment data is the main event this week. Given the key correlation between the Canadian currency and crude oil prices recently, this makes for significant action in store for any sort of oil trader.
Crude Oil Analysis
Crude oil has broken down from the daily range. The price action between 70.75$-76.8$ should be watched for, it may be acting as a resistance zone.
Trading Focus
Oil in focus and could affect CAD pairs.
Friday: US Non-Farm Payrolls – The Main Event
Key Event
The US will release the non-farm payrolls report, arguably the most awaited data of the month. Previous figures showed that 311,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate increased by 0.2%.
Possible Market Impact
This could be a very thin market, as many European and UK traders will be off for the Good Friday holiday. The US markets could see higher volatility as a result.
Gold Outlook
An equidirectional triangle can be seen on the hourly chart, which may break down. The demand zone at 1953$ may be tested before a move higher. Target levels include 2000$ to 2003$.
Conclusion
It is going to be one of those sharp volatility weeks, with events pouring in from every part of the globe: central banks’ decisions on policy, inflation reports, and employment data—just for this cocktail of a week. The grand finale of the week will be the US non-farm payrolls report, which could unleash such surprise market movements toward the end of the week. So, stay updated and make your moves wiser as we head to this busy week.
